中美贸易战系列研究（一）：中美贸易战放飞美股黑天鹅.pdf
1/ 2018 03 25 S0570516060002 010-56793933 lichaohtsc S0570517080002 021-28972070 zhuxunhtsc 010-56793970 gongfeihtsc 010-56793961 chengqianghtsc sunouhtsc 1 : 2018.03 2 : 2018.03 3 : 2018.01 W3 17 WA 322AA80U UPSL2017 11 103.75% 4.0% 3.5% / | 2018 03 25 2. 3 . 6 . 8 . 11 . 14 . 14 U . 15 . 16 1 “ ” . 3 2 “ ” . 3 3 . 4 4 2018 4 6. 5 5 2 3 22 . 6 6 . 6 7 A . 7 8 A . 7 9 2015 SITC . 9 10 2015 . 10 11 GDP . 11 12 GDP . 12 13 . 12 14 PCE . 12 15 . 14 16 3% . 15 17 U . 16 / | 2018 03 25 320181149 51“ ”Five Thirty Eight 21 “ ” 2 “ ” FiveThirty Eight FiveThirty Eight 354045502017/1/233/23/20175/23/20177/23/20179/23/201711/23/20171/23/20183/23/2018 3540455055602017/1/233/23/20175/23/20177/23/20179/23/201711/23/20171/23/20183/23/2018 / | 2018 03 25 43 Wind 3 223 221560NAFTA301 / | 2018 03 25 54 2018 4 6 Wind / | 2018 03 25 63 17 WAA 112 1 201820081020172 2 3 22 301VIX500 4.56% 225100 3.91% 3.57% 3.52% 1.66% 5 2 3 22 6 Wind Wind AA AA 20172017 21% 2016 8.5% 12.52018 3000 650050002300240025002600270028002900300081318232833382017-032017-042017-052017-062017-072017-082017-092017-102017-112017-122018-012018-02: 500 (VIX): 500-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2017-01-042017-02-042017-03-042017-04-042017-05-042017-06-042017-07-042017-08-042017-09-042017-10-042017-11-042017-12-042018-01-042018-02-042018-03-04(2017 1 1 )225(2017 1 1 )(2017 1 1 )100 (2017 1 1 ) / | 2018 03 25 7CPI PPIPSLU 201711 10 3.75% 4.0% 3.5% A AA7 A 8 A Wind Wind 80018002800380048005800-500501001502002002-12-012003-07-012004-02-012004-09-012005-04-012005-11-012006-06-012007-01-012007-08-012008-03-012008-10-012009-05-012009-12-012010-07-012011-02-012011-09-012012-04-012012-11-012013-06-012014-01-012014-08-012015-03-012015-10-012016-05-012016-12-012017-07-012018-02-01: : %5001500250035004500550065001.522.533.544.555.562003-12-012004-09-012005-06-012006-03-012006-12-012007-09-012008-06-012009-03-012009-12-012010-09-012011-06-012012-03-012012-12-012013-09-012014-06-012015-03-012015-12-012016-09-012017-06-012018-03-01:10 % / | 2018 03 25 83 22301We will end up negotiating these things, rather than fighting over them, in my view.In this case, the area is technology. Technology is probably the most important part of our economy.600W202520152700 74% / | 2018 03 25 99 2015 SITC Wind 2015 20(200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 / | 2018 03 25 1010 2015 电信及声音的录制或重放装置及设备 其他运输设备 一般贸易 办公用机械及自动数据处理设备 陆路车辆 (包括气垫式 ) 一般贸易 未列明杂项制品 油籽及含油果实 一般贸易 未列明电力机械、装置、器具及其电气零件 未列明电力机械、装置、器具及其电气零件 一般贸易 服装及衣着附件 专业、科学及控制用仪器和装置 一般贸易 Wind 301 / | 2018 03 25 11+ GDP- GDPGDP GDP 20175% GDPA A11 GDP Wind -15.0-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.01995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017: % GDP: %:GDP: : % / | 2018 03 25 1212 GDP Wind PCE 13 14 PCE Wind Wind -60.0-40.0-20.00.020.040.060.080.0100.02009-032009-062009-092009-122010-032010-062010-092010-122011-032011-062011-092011-122012-032012-062012-092012-122013-032013-062013-092013-122014-032014-062014-092014-122015-032015-062015-092015-122016-032016-062016-092016-122017-032017-062017-092017-12GDP : : %GDP : : %GDP : : %-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%2010-012010-072011-012011-072012-012012-072013-012013-072014-012014-072015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-01PPI CPI0.81.31.82.32.83.33.82009-042009-102010-042010-102011-042011-102012-042012-102013-042013-102014-042014-102015-042015-102016-042016-102017-042017-10% : 4: PCE: / | 2018 03 25 13 / | 2018 03 25 1480U UPSL2017 11 103.75% 4.0% 3.5% .80PCE 5%GDP 0% .20%15 Bloomberg 3% 20133.5%-5051015201970-031971-011971-111972-091973-071974-051975-031976-011976-111977-091978-071979-051980-031981-011981-111982-091983-071984-051985-031986-011986-111987-091988-071989-051990-031991-011991-111992-09FEDPCEGDP% / | 2018 03 25 1516 3% Wind U U1 2 3PSL 4 2017 GDP 1 20182018 1 25 2 2017PSL 2018 2 PSL1510 3 UU2017 11 103.75% 4.0% 3.5% -3-2-101234567891011121314152002-032002-102003-052003-122004-072005-022005-092006-042006-112007-062008-012008-082009-032009-102010-052010-122011-072012-022012-092013-042013-112014-062015-012015-082016-032016-102017-052017-12GDP: :CPI:5 / | 2018 03 25 1617 U Wind 702017 70%CPI1 2 3 2.53.03.54.04.55.02013-022013-052013-082013-112014-022014-052014-082014-112015-022015-052015-082015-112016-022016-052016-082016-112017-022017-052017-082017-11%:10 / | 2018 03 25 17©6 3006 30020% 5%-20% -5%5% 5%-20% 20% 228 1 / 210019 28 A 18 100032 86 25 83389999 / 86 25 83387521 86 10 63211166/ 86 10 63211275 ht-rdhtsc ht-rdhtsc 4011 24 / 518048 18 E 23 / 200120 86 755 82493932 / 86 755 82492062 86 21 28972098 / 86 21 28972068 ht-rdhtsc ht-rdhtsc
