钢铁有色行业2021年度投资策略：黎明远航，聚焦成长类周期投资机会.pdf
2021 S0790520100002 laifuyangkysec 2020 12 07 2020 2021 2020 2020 75% 2021 2021 2021 2020 2020 2021 2021 2020-2021 3240 6528 2021 1960 2021 2020 10 ST 6%-7% 2 目 录 CONTENTS 1 2020 6 4 5 3 7 1.1 2020 Mysteel 1 2020 600 1100 1600 2100 2600 3100 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 350 550 750 950 1150 1350 1550 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2 300 3 2019 127% 60% 11 2019 28.8% 2 2020 Mysteel 2020 2020 3 2020 4 1.2 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2017 2018 2019 2020 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Feb-10 Feb-12 Feb-14 Feb-16 Feb-18 Feb-20 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Jan-12 May-13 Sep-14 Jan-16 May-17 Sep-18 Jan-20 5 2020 1-10 3.01% 10 7.39% 1- 10 6.3% 10 12% 4 10% 2020 1. 2. 1-10 8% 10-15% 2020 10 255.2 257.3 11.0% 12.5% 2020 Mysteel Wind Wind 1.3 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 3 , 2% 5 , 6% 6 , 21% 9 , 3% 10 , 2% 12 , 53% 3 5 6 9 10 12 2017-2018 2019 6 7 2020 1. 2. 2020 2020 7000 2021 5-6 Wind 1.4 2020 8 2020 5 9 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Jan-15 Mar-16 May-17 Jul-18 Sep-19 Nov-20 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Jan-15 Mar-16 May-17 Jul-18 Sep-19 Nov-20 2019 200-300 2020 5 10 Wind Wind 2 目 录 CONTENTS 1 2020 6 4 5 3 7 2 55% 75% 10 , 54.69% , 17.94% , 8.23% , 2.26% , 2.86% , 3.67% , 3.18% , 7.17% Mysteel 2.1 2015 6 2020 2020 7 11 2020 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Feb-12 Feb-14 Feb-16 Feb-18 Feb-20 (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Feb-19 70 : 70 : 12 2020 2 Wind Wind 2.1 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Feb-19 : : : 13 2015 1/2/3/4 2020 70 8 59 10 45 Wind 2.1 (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12 Feb-14 Feb-16 Feb-18 Feb-20 : % : : % 14 1. 2009-2010 2009 0.67 2009 45.4% 2012 - 16% 16.1% 27.8% 30% 2. 2013-2014 2012 1.37 2013 2015 3. 2020 2020 10 0.46 20 - 10% -15% Wind 2.2 1-10 3.01% 10 7.39% 2020 2020 15 2020 16 2020 11% 5-10 7.93% 7 2021 7%-8% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2020-10 2019-10 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 17 2020 Wind Wind Wind 2.3 2020 1-10 4442 19.3% 2020 GDP -3.8% GDP 18 2020 19 2020 GDP 2021 2021 2019 2021 4400 40% 20 (700) (600) (500) (400) (300) (200) (100) 0 100 200 300 400 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Apr-10 Jul-11 Oct-12 Jan-14 Apr-15 Jul-16 Oct-17 Jan-19 Apr-20 -
