零部件国际比较研究：德尔福启示录.pdf
<p>1/ 2018 03 25 S0570512070062 0755-82492295 xiezhicaihtsc S0570517030001 0755-82492080 lihongyanghtsc 021-38476102 chenyanpinghtsc 1 : 2018.03 2 : 2018.03 3 : 2018.03 Wind + 1999 20052011 2017 12PE_TTM 2012 1 8 2018 2 18 201614% 36%55%24%( ) EPS( ) P/E ( ) 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 600741 26.39 1.93 2.09 2.26 2.46 13.7 12.6 11.7 10.7 600699 27.27 0.48 1.48 1.39 1.69 56.8 18.4 19.6 16.1 600660 25.84 1.25 1.28 1.44 1.65 20.7 20.2 17.9 15.7 601799 51.75 1.27 1.66 2.15 2.75 40.7 31.2 24.1 18.8 (20)(8)4152717/03 17/05 17/07 17/09 17/11 18/01(%)300 / |2018 03 25 2. 5 . 6 . 6 / . 6 . 7 . 7 . 8 . 9 . 11 . 13 . 14 . 14 + . 14 . 14 . 14 . 15 . 15 . 15 . 17 . 18 . 19 . 20 + . 20 + . 21 . 23 . 23 . 23 . 24 . 25 . 26 . 26 . 27 . 27 . 29 . 30 / |2018 03 25 31 . 6 2 . 7 3 2016 . 7 4 2012-2016 . 7 5 2012-2016 . 7 6 . 8 7 2016 . 8 8 2016 . 9 9 . 9 10 . 10 11 . 10 12 2017 . 10 13 . 11 14 . 11 15 . 11 16 . 11 17 . 12 18 . 12 19 . 13 20 . 13 21 . 15 22 . 15 23 2017 1-9 . 16 24 2017 1-9 . 16 25 . 16 26 2014 . 16 27 2012-2016 . 17 28 YOY YOY . 17 29 2011-2017Q1-Q3 . 18 30 2011-2017Q1-Q3 . 18 31 . 18 32 2011-2016. 19 33 . 19 34 . 19 35 2011-2016 . 20 36 . 20 37 . 21 38 . 21 / |2018 03 25 439 . 22 40 . 23 41 2017 . 23 42 2017 . 24 43 2016 . 24 44 - 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5% 5 5% 6 5% 7 5% 8 3% 9 3% 10 2% 2016 46 15 12620 18 20 18 2015 2016 36.2%35.2% 25.7% / |2018 03 25 98 2016 2016 1993 5142016 42.7425.65%9 2016 2015Mobileye CSLP2019 L4 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002014 2015 2016 / |2018 03 25 1010 / 2015.7 Quanergy 2015.8 Ottomatika 2017.1 Movimento 2017.4 Otonomo 2017.4 Valens 2017.8 Innoviz 2017.9 Leddar Tech 2017.10 NuTonomy MobileyeCSLP L4/L52019 2025 5000 11 CSLP Navigant Research 201712 2017 Navigant Research / |2018 03 25 112017 12 5DLPH APTV/2017 1252020 150 2022 170 13 14 48V2017 45 2020 50 202260 15 16 2017 12 5286 5 3 235 21.7%17 12300 18 2 / |2018 03 25 1217 18 23494 28604 15,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,00027,00029,00031,00033,0002017/1/3 2017/4/3 2017/7/3 2017/10/3 2018/1/3 2017/11/21 2017/12/21 2018/1/21 2018/2/21APTV APTV( )DLPH DLPH / |2018 03 25 13DSI19 2017 erae AMS DSI 2016 2015 2014 Reydel Automotive 4.5nuTonomy Lyft 5Mobileye CES3 TTTechiECU20 2018 TTtech 2017 Mobileye nuTonomy 2016 Pivotal Lyft / |2018 03 25 1420054 2011A600741 600742+ 19992005 60%14%2016 36%2016 55.25% 23.88%2017 12/DSI / |2018 03 25 1520092016 1243 60.89 200923 201758.32% 21 2008 23 2009 6 2013 5 57.5 50% 2015 3 70% 2016 1 100% 45 2017 9 17.16 50% 2017 10 50.1% 22 30201766.2% 43.1%22.7% 35.3% / |2018 03 25 1623 2017 1-9 24 2017 1-9 2017 2017 25 ,201426 2014 23% 18% 57% 38% 93% 76% 68% 25% 40% 45% 51% 61% 78% 81% 37% 12% 63% 2015 66%23%6% 3%1% -1%43%35%9%6% 4%-3% / |2018 03 25 1719782009 5 50%2013 12 50%( ) 2015 1170% 30% 65% 16 864 23% 70%27 31.5% 27 2012-2016 28 YOY YOY 1989 50% 201750%402016 95.257.9% 4.06 7.07%LED“ ” “ ”“ ”16 1243 17.82%60.76 16.11% 17 1037.511.69% 48.2 7.82% 50%55%60%65%70%75%80%2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016AYOYYOY / |2018 03 25 1829 2011-2017Q1-Q3 30 2011-2017Q1-Q3 31 2016 44.75%2015 60%10%20%30%40%50%02004006008001,0001,2001,4002011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A2017Q1-Q3 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0102030405060702011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A2017Q1-Q3 / |2018 03 25 1932 2011-2016 33 34 201679 2016 286.41125.27% 2011-2016 101%02004006008001,0001,2001,4000%20%40%60%80%100%2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A / |2018 03 25 2035 2011-2016 36 2011.1 100% 50% 100% 3.1 2013.8 50% 57.5 2015.3 9.5% 4.7 2015.3 70% 2015.5 100% 45 2017.9 50% 17.16 2017.10 50% + 02004006008001,0001,2001,4002011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A / |2018 03 25 2137 38 2017 9 50%+ ADASADAS2016 24GHz 77GHz Cammsys ADASADAS / |2018 03 25 2239 2017 1050.1% MEB / |2018 03 25 23A2011 ST2016 185.52 4.53 13.46% 2004 PREH IMAQUIN KSS TSHMI InfotainmentConnectivity40 2004 2008 A 2011 A 2013 Innoventis 2014 IMA 2015 QUIN HMI 2016 KSS TS 2017 PrehAutomation PIAHolding PSAN 2017 KSS41 2017 2017 4 14 4.43 2017 5 5 KSS 3,000 2017 6 24 -PSAN 2017 11 4 KSS1.5 2.5 4 HMI2017 62.94 20.15% ;13 67.3518.07 188.61% 9.43% 1.172.2 / |2018 03 25 2442 2017 43 2016 2017 2016 44 - 2017 2016 KSS PCC 2016 129.54%2017 KSS PCC TS BMS ADAS2017 9 194.128.87 65.46% 119.78% 52.27%18.68%14.02%9.27%2.28% 3.48%(HMI)50.28%22.23%7.28%13.00%2.49% 4.72%(HMI) / |2018 03 25 2545 2012-2017Q1-Q3 46 2012-2017Q1-Q3 2017 2017 20132013 70% 47 2012-2016 48 2012 2016 2016 2016 201611,835 64% 201649 2016 - 62016 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0501001502002502012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A2017Q1-Q3(%)0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%02468102012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A2017Q1-Q3(%)0501001502006466687072742012 2013 2014 2015 2016( )( ) %05101520252012 2013 2014 2015 2016% % / |2018 03 25 2619871993 2015 20 90 1991 TCG 19942002 Hyundai Mobis 20052006-200820132014 PPG 2016201750 1987 6 1989 7 1991 9 TCG 1993 6 A 1994 12 2002 10 Hyundai Mobis 2005 5 2006-2008 2013 9 2014 7 PPG 2015 3 H 2016 10 2017 3 51 52 : : / |2018 03 25 272013 115.012017 187.16 10.3% 2013 19.182017 31.49 10.4% 53 2013-2017 54 2013-2017 Wind, Wind, 2017 66.2 +17.8% 35.4% 1.623% 55 2008-2017 :Wind 05101520250501001502002013 2014 2015 2016 2017YOY %051015202530051015202530352013 2014 2015 2016 2017YOY %0204060801001201401601802002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 / |2018 03 25 2856 :Wind, 132.44 136.83 142.79 152.41 158.63 1151201251301351401451501551601652013 2014 2015 2016 2017/ / |2018 03 25 292011 10.972016 33.47 25% 2017 30.0731.69% 3.24 34.55%2016 90% 20% 20169 528.5557 2011-2017Q1-Q3 58 2011-2017Q1-Q3 Wind Wind 59 60 Wind Wind 30%20165099 16.3% LEDinside 201610%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%05101520253035402011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A2017Q1-Q3 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%00.511.522.533.542011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A2017Q1-Q360%70%80%90%100%110%2014A 2015A 2016A 0.0010.0020.0030.0040.002011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A / |2018 03 25 3061 62 LED LEDADB RGBLED LED 2012LED LEDLED 50 LEDLED30% LED2016 LED63 2012-2016 LED 2012 LED 2013 GolfA7 LED 2015 50 LED / LED2016 LED , ,AFS ADB 2014 AFSGS4 2016 ADB2017 ADBADB 30ADB0%2%4%6%8%10%0501001502002503003504002011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A(0%5%10%15%20%25%0200400600800100012002011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A / |2018 03 25 312016 15NADS64 2016 / |2018 03 25 32Z23032000 AOK809 © 2018 6 3006 30020% 5%-20% -5%5% 5%-20% 20% 228 1 / 210019 28 A 18 100032 86 25 83389999 / 86 25 83387521 86 10 63211166/ 86 10 63211275 ht-rdhtsc ht-rdhtsc 4011 24 / 518048 18 E 23 / 200120 86 755 82493932 / 86 755 82492062 86 21 28972098 / 86 21 28972068 ht-rdhtsc ht-rdhtsc </p>
