证券行业2020年中期投资策略：政策利好叠加复苏持续，券商估值修复可期.pdf
2020 S0790520050001 gaochao1kysec 2020 6 15 1-5 +14% 2020 1-5 1 IPO 2 1 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 1-5 4 1.1 Wind 2020 6 12 -12.3% 300 -2.3% 10 2020Q1 2020Q2 PB ROE 2 2019 PB ROE 2020 1-5 PB ROE 1 2020 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 300 1.001.201.401.601.802.002.20 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 ROE( ) PB- 1.2 Wind 300 7.9% 1-4 2019 1 3 2020 1-5 4 2020 1 PB -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 ( ) -1.21.41.61.82.02.2 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 PB1.3 Wind % 2020.6.12 300 % % 1 182.99 185.45 195.15 2 77.02 79.48 89.17 3 25.94 28.40 38.09 4 20.53 22.99 32.69 5 12.02 14.48 24.18 6 9.99 12.45 22.15 7 9.90 12.36 22.06 8 -3.42 -0.97 8.73 9 -6.99 -4.54 5.16 10 -7.55 -5.09 4.61 300 -2.3 -12.3 1 1.4 Wind 2020 1-5 14% 5 2020 1-5 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 YOY- 35 2019 2020Q1 YOY YOY 676 19.5% 21.6% 250 36.8% 30.0% 357 21.6% 11.4% 78 16.4% 9.4% 294 3.7% 9.4% 80 25.4% 9.6% 1,246 92.9% 39.7% 267 -41.5% 32.0% 407 17.1% 13.0% 112 24.4% 13.5% 156 13.7% 5.0% 46 65.1% 5.6% 3,136 37.9% 832 -6.2% 3,762 42.0% 971 -0.6% 202 20.2% 6.4% 52 N.A. 6.3% 626 67.0% 20.0% 138 54.7% 16.6% 2,429 29.2% 574 20.9% 1,334 73.2% 397 -20.9% 1,032 71.6% 306 -22.0% 1,000 71.4% 301 -20.3% 2 2020Q1 1.4 Wind 2019 1-4 5-6 6 2020 1-5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 300 (%) (%)- 1.4 Wind IPO 6 12 8039 +27% IPO 2020 1-5 126.72% 2020 7 2020 1-5 2019 YOY 2020 1-5 YOY IPO 2,532 84.1% 1,132 126.7% 76,417 31.6% 38,214 34.7% 3 IPO -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 ( ) - 1.4 Wind Q1 2019 2020 1 50% 30% 8 2020 1-5 -3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% 18.0%-20.0-20.040.060.080.0100.0120.0 2018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q1 / - 9 2020Q1 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 - 1 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 1-5 4 2.1 2020 IPO 4 2020 2020 1 23 2020 2 14 2020 3 1 2020 3 6 2020 4 6 2020 5 29 T+0 2020 6 3 2020 6 8 2020 6 12 2.1 5 20 10 24 A 20 50 ( ) 24 (1) 5000 ; (2) 10 1 ;(3) 50 3 ( ) + + + + + + + 10 15 20 30 40 20% 5 20% 5 2%-5% 2.1 10% 20% 10 (7.00) (2.00) 3.00 8.00 13.00 18.00 23.00 28.00 33.00 (50.00) 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 (%) (%) 300 (%)- 2.2 Wind + 6 12 2020 1.6% +14% 11 12 2.2 Wind 6 21% 30%/40%/50% 4.2%/5.6%/7.0% 30% 40% 50% 124,556 166,075 207,594 0.0278% 0.0278% 0.0278% 69.35 92.47 115.59 2019 8.8% 11.7% 14.7% 52.01 69.35 86.69 2019 4.2% 5.6% 7.0% 1 2020 ( 6 12 ) 2 = * 1-25% 2.2 Wind IPO IPO 67 ( 6 ) 70 2019 60 80 IPO +0.73% IPO IPO IPO 25% 60 0.5 30% 9 6.8 0.55% 80 0.5 30% 12 9.0 0.73% 100 0.5 30% 15 11.3 0.91% IPO IPO IPO 2019 32.5% 34.5% 42.1% 5.8% 3.8% 2020 1-5 35.4% 35.0% 46.9% 5.8% 3.6% 7 8 2.2 30% 2.0% 50% 3.4% 2018 2019 30 PE 16 59 74 30 12 22 34 PE+ 28 80 108 584 1000 1584 PE+ 4.7% 8.0% 6.8% 30% 50% PE 2.0% 3.4% 9 2.3 Wind 12 2020 1-5 13 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 YOY- -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 PMI - 2.4 Wind ROE
