CLIMATEACTIONREPORTTHREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES FROM CLIMATE CHANGE FOR AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITYOctober 2019Climate change is affecting the global food system in ways that increase the threats to those who currently already suffer from hunger and undernutrition. (Global Hunger Index: The Challenge of Hunger and Climate Change, von Grebmer et al.)Transforming the land sector and deploying measures in agriculture, forestry, wetlands and bioenergy could feasibly and sustainably contribute about 30%, or 15 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) per year, of the global mitigation needed in 2050 to deliver on the 1.5°C target. (Nature Climate Change, Roe et al.)September 2019Women, smallholder farmers and poor and marginalized communities are being put at ever greater risk from exposure to financial and environmental shocks and power imbalances that prevent them from acting with greater agency and autonomy. (Global Consultation Report, Food and Land Use Coalition)August 2019The stability of food supply is projected to decrease as the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events that disrupt food chains increases (high confidence) . The most vulnerable people will be more severely affected (high confidence). (Land Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)May 2019. relating the observed yields to observed weather at each political unit from 1974 to 2008 . we find that the impact of global climate change on yields of different crops . In nearly half of food-insecure countries, estimated caloric availability decreased. (Climate change has likely already affected global food production, Ray et al.)IFAD and climate threats: go to page 81 to read about what beneficiaries are saying. Headlines from recent major reports on climate change, agriculture and food securityThe world is currently on track to warm by as much as 3.4°C by the end of the century, a situation that would escalate disastrous heatwaves, flooding, droughts and societal unrest. Major coral reefs and many other species face extinction. (United Nations statement at the United Nations Climate Action Summit, September 2019)Climate change is already harming poor rural people and smallholder agricultural producers. They need immediate and comprehensive adaptation actions to reduce the damage, as well as assistance to realize their potential contribution to keeping global warming under 1.5°C.CLIMATEACTIONREPORTAcknowledgements The Climate Action Report 2019 was prepared under the overall guidance of Margarita Astralaga, Director of the Environment, Climate, Gender and Social Inclusion Division, and under the technical leadership of Romina Cavatassi, Lead Natural Resource Economist at IFAD, and internal co-lead Ricci Symons, Environment and Climate Analyst, who played a critical role in coordinating the writing and the development process of the report, assisted by Leslie Lipper, Senior Consultant on Environment and Climate Change. This report draws on preparation led by the following authors: Chapter 1. Leslie Lipper, Romina Cavatassi and Ricci SymonsChapter 2. Alashiya Gordes, Giulia Gagliardi, Lara Barange and Sebastien SubsolChapter 3. Eric Patrick, Sheila Mwanundu and Lapo Sermonti Chapter 4. Stenio Andrade, Florent Baarsch, Sebastien Subsol, Amath Pathe Sene, Laure Sophie Schiettecatte and Romina CavatassiChapter 5. Alashiya Gordes, Luna Montozzi, Ricci Symons and Romina CavatassiChapter 6. Barbara Cooney, Jack Rossiter, René Castro Cordero, Renaud Colmant, Nicolas Tremblay and Ricci Symons Chapter 7. Leslie Lipper, Ilaria Carlotta Firmian, Beatrice Gerli, Ricci Symons, Sebastien Subsol, Karan Sehgal and Yawo Jonky Tenou Chapter 8. Romina Cavatassi, Adriana Paolantonio, Aslihan Arslan, Federica Alfani, Daniel Higgins, Alessandra Garbero, Nancy McCarthy and Athur MabisoMany colleagues and experts provided helpful input and comments, including: Paxina Chileshe, Liza Leclerc, Maria Elena Mangiafico, Andrew Morrow, Oliver Mundy, Oliver Page, Lauren Phillips and Vidhisha Nayanthara Samarasekara. The team would also like to thank Alice Brié, Mariano Pidal, Erica Doro, Ana Elena Ventura Pozuelo, Dilva Terzano, Evi Wulandari and Alessia Valentini for support with data and information.Many thanks to the colleagues providing guidance and support throughout the production process Francesca Aielli, Birgit Plockinger, Janet Sharpe and Michelle Tang. Finally, the team would also like to thank Paul Winters, Associate Vice-President of the Strategy and Knowledge Department, for his support and technical oversight.© 2019 by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of IFAD. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IFAD concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The designations “developed” and “developing” countries are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgement about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process. All rights reserved.ISBN 978-92-9072-956-3Printed December 2019Abbreviations 6Foreword 8Major achievements in climate change mainstreaming at IFAD in 2019 10Chapter 1: Setting the scene 111.1 What role for international agricultural development agencies in taking climate action? 111.2 Key features of the global climate change policy and financing environment relevant for the agriculture and food sectors 121.3 What is IFAD doing to mainstream climate change? 14Chapter 2: Mainstreaming climate change into IFAD country strategies 182.1 Linking NDCs to IFAD country strategies 182.2 What are the priorities identified in countries NDCs and how do they relate to IFAD priorities? 202.3 What are the investment implications of integrating NDC priority actions into country strategies? 202.4 Next steps and partnerships 22Chapter 3: Corporate climate risk assessment SECAP 243.1 Why is it important? 253.2 How does it work? 253.3 The SECAP in 2019: analysis and results 283.4 Next steps and partnerships 30Chapter 4: Tools for integrating climate change into project design 324.1 The Climate Adaptation in Rural Development resilience tool 324.2 Adaptation Framework 354.3 Ex-Ante Carbon-balance Tool 36Chapter 5: Tracking climate finance in IFADs programme of loans and grants 385.1 IFADs adaptation and mitigation investments 385.2 Status of IFAD11 climate finance 405.3 Next steps: tracking climate finance 43Chapter 6: Supplementary finance for climate action 446.1 Role and importance of supplementary finance 446.2 Partnerships with international environmental and climate finance mechanisms 456.3 Developing new partnerships 50Chapter 7: Project implementation 517.1 Progress on adaptation and environmental management in IFADs projects 517.2 The Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme 52Table of contents7.3 Expanding climate change in IFADs project portfolio implementation 547.4 Participatory mapping 547.5 Renewable energy technologies 55Chapter 8: Impact assessment 568.1 The IFAD approach to impact assessment 568.2 Geo-referenced climatic and agroecological data 578.3 Resilience to climate 658.4 Next steps: impact assessment 65Conclusion 67References 68ANNEX I: IFAD NDC analysis database: notes on the dataset 70ANNEX II: Tracking IFADs climate finance: methodology, project-level values and notes 74ANNEX III: Key features of multilateral, public-sector climate and environment finance agencies that IFAD partners with 78Responses to climate threats and opportunities 81List of figuresFigure 1. Climate in IFAD operations 17Figure 2. Distribution of adaptation and mitigation measures by region 19Figure 3. Distribution of adaptation measures by selected sectors and regions 21Figure 4. Distribution of mitigation measures by selected sectors and regions 21Figure 5. Distribution of costed and non-costed measures by selected sector and region 23Figure 6. Snapshot of the SECAP screening process in the context of the larger SECAP screening-for-classification process 26Figure 7. SECAP background study for the Central African Republic COSOP 27Figure 8. SECAP-screened projects in 2019 (as at September 2019) 29Figure 9. Rice yield potential in Mali given different climatic scenarios 34Figure 10. Irrigation requirements for various crops of different growing season lengths in a semi-arid environment as a result of climate change 34Figure 11. Using the Adaptation Framework: an example for drought-prone areas 35Figure 12. Example of EX-ACT analysis of with and without project GHG emissions for the Niger PRECIS project 36Figure 13. IFAD climate finance “thermometer” 39Figure 14. IFAD11 approvals and their climate finance amounts and shares 40Figure 15. Total IFAD climate change adaptation and mitigation finance by region 41Figure 16. IFAD adaptation investments by MDB adaptation sector and subsector 425Figure 17. IFAD adaptation investments by MDB adaptation sector and region 42Figure 18. Map of IFAD supplementary finance (as at November 2019) 46Figure 19. Success factors of the Integrated Approach Pilot 46Figure 20. ASAP: planned and achieved (as at October 2019) 53Figure 21. IFAD11 COSOPs integrating NDCs 70Figure 22. Distribution of adaptation measures by sector 72Figure 23. Distribution of mitigation measures by sector 73Figure 24. IFAD climate finance by approval type and progress towards the 25 per cent goal 76List of tables Table 1. Climate risk classification in the IFAD portfolio and pipeline: trends in climate risk ratings in IFAD projects 28Table 2. IFAD projects in 2019: climate change adaptation and environmental and natural resources management scores (as at October 2019) 52 Table 3. Priority sectors/areas in NDCs and category description 71Table 4. IFAD climate finance by project, as of 30 September 2019 77Table 5. IFAD sources of climate finance 78List of boxesBox 1. Integrating NDC priorities into Rwandas COSOP 22Box 2. Adaptation Fund and the Talent Retention for Rural Transformation project 47Box 3. Belize Be-Resilient GCF project 48Box 4. Scaling up multiple benefit approaches in Mali 53Box 5. How about tracking climate finance in dual-benefit projects? 756AF Adaptation Fund APR Asia and the PacificASAP Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture ProgrammeCAR Climate Action ReportCARD Climate Adaptation in Rural DevelopmentCOSOP country strategic opportunities programmeECG Environment, Climate, Gender and Social Inclusion Division ESA East and Southern AfricaEX-ACT Ex-Ante Carbon-balance ToolFAO Food and Agriculture OrganizationGCF Green Climate FundGEF Global Environment FacilityGHG greenhouse gasIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeKJWA Koronivia Joint Work on AgricultureLAC Latin America and the CaribbeanLDCF Least Developed Countries FundLULUCF Land Use, Land Use Change and ForestryMDB multilateral development bankNDC Nationally Determined ContributionNEN Near East, North Africa and EuropeOPR Operational Policy and ResultsPoLG programme of loans and grantsRIA Research and Impact Assessment divisionSCCF Special Climate Change FundSDG Sustainable Development GoalSECAP Social, Environmental and Climate Assessment ProceduresUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeWCA West and Central AfricaWFP World Food ProgrammeAbbreviations©IFAD/Andrew Esiebo/Panos78ForewordClimate change is no longer a problem for the future: it is happening now. Actions to tackle climate change and address the challenges it poses are paramount on the international policy agenda, as well as among IFAD priorities and commitments. In 2018, IFAD launched the Climate Action Report (CAR) series, a yearly publication that provides an overview of IFADs work on climate change and reports on progress, challenges and achievements in every work area where climate is accounted for within IFADs efforts towards improving the livelihoods of poor rural people. This years report is designed to highlight how climate change effects are considered and acted upon within the IFAD project cycle. It starts at the inception of developing country strategies and continues through the design, implementation and financing of projects to the assessment of impacts. The year 2019 is a key moment in the international policy debate on climate. It is also an important year for mainstreaming climate change in IFADs operations, with significant changes having been made in key aspects of its business model to achieve corporate-level commitments on climate change-related factors. The 2019 CAR documents the progress and achievements made in the ongoing development and implementation of the tools and operational changes in the business model of IFAD largely triggered by the Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme (ASAP). This report includes statistical annexes describing climate-related finance provided as part of IFADs programme of loans and grants, as well as the mobilization of supplementary climate and environmental financing. It reports the screening of client countries Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and how they feature within the country strategies