MEDIA TRENDS the spaces that brands can credibly occupy; and the context and catalysts for change. In each, we offer an overview of the implications for media measurement and effectiveness. As ever, these are intended to be practical and useful, designed to support your thinking and activity in 2020. These trends and predictions affect us at Kantar too: they guide the development of the services we offer our clients, the narratives we can deploy, and show how we can continue to help bring the industry together in our quest to use data to generate insights. Please get in touch if you have any questions. Jane Ostler MEDIA TRENDS more is not always better. Overwhelmed consumers will become more discerning and focus their time on services with algorithms that provide the greatest enjoyment. Among subscription-funded services, the winners will be those with the highest quality original content and understanding of different audiences. Trading currencies can play an important role in helping these services understand and target new subscribers. Broadcasters will retain relevance to viewers and advertisers through appropriate use of data, emulating the strategy of global hits such as ITVs Love Island in the UK. The show used analysis of viewing behaviour and engagement trends to steer the show editorially, creating maximum value and helping advertisers and sponsors reap the benefits. The resulting changes made to their programme strategy continue across the globe. What does this mean for media measurement and for brand advertisers? With new types of content come new measurement challenges. There will be strategic opportunities for advertisers such as product placement, branded integrations and co-promotions. But the rise of ad-free subscription platforms will also mean restricted opportunities for advertising. Meanwhile, TV content providers of all types will need to pay even closer attention to their customers demands and interests, to keep them engaged. The battle of the streaming platforms heats up THE TECHNOLOGY TRANSFORMING THE MEDIA LANDSCAPE SUSHMITA JAIN KANTAR, UK MEDIA TRENDS they will voice their commands, questions and desires and expect speedy responses from a variety of voice-enabled devices. Despite the potential, the main tasks that people use their smart speakers for currently are streaming music and checking the weather hardly ground-breaking. The number one issue preventing smart speakers from reaching their tipping point is lack of confidence in their ability to answer questions correctly. So, although our research shows that half of voice assistant users have had commerce interactions, such as adding products to a cart, or checking retail opening times, fear of buying the wrong thing is holding people back from completing a purchase. Manufacturers will need to improve the technical capabilities of voice devices to increase consumer confidence and usage. But audio is far broader than smart speakers, and we predict that 2020 could herald a new age of audio advertising. We expect podcasts to be one of the fastest growing channels for ad spend: according to our Getting Media Right 2019 study, 63% of marketers say they plan to increase spend in podcast advertising over the next 12 months. The intimate and highly personal nature of podcasts offers advertisers a highly receptive audience. And being one of the least cluttered channels, they are also one of the most engaging - our measurement of podcast advertising shows above average lifts on metrics such as purchase intent when compared to our norms data. Radio is also reinventing itself, tapping into the broader resurgence of audio as a marketing channel. Beyond the traditional mass-reach FM channels, the digitisation of radio is fuelling greater diversification within the industry, enabling the rise of more niche stations. Our audience analysis in Sweden shows the way in which people are consuming broadcast content is shifting to online. Online listening reaches 9.8% of 12-79 year olds overall in Sweden according to the official radio currency (measured by Kantar), but reach becomes much higher when looking only at younger age groups. 2020 could be the make-or-break moment for newer audio channels. Brands could lose interest in voice commerce if smart speaker manufacturers fail to improve their functionality. Podcasts need to become more measurable to help advertisers and brands understand the ROI from their investments. Radio will continue to modernise in a way that helps brands reach new audiences, to reinforce its position as a relevant and reliable advertising medium. Over the next 12 months, aligning brands with these audio moments will need to evolve to a new level for marketers. TURNING UP THE VOLUME Will newer audio channels go mainstream in 2020? MEDIA TRENDS & PREDICTIONS 2020 HEATHER OSHEA KANTAR, NORTH AMERICA THE TECHNOLOGY TRANSFORMING THE MEDIA LANDSCAPE15 CONTENT MEETS COMMERCE The new world of shopvertising China is the most dynamic eCommerce market in the world. With US$1.94tn spent online in 2019, this is double the value of online sales in the US, the second largest global market. Mobile shopping is a key driver of this growth: our TGI Global Quick View data shows that 70% of Chinese adults who use the internet shop with their mobile phone, compared with the global average of 47%. Chinese mobile shopping has been driven by the major social media ecosystems, which have had their own integrated native eCommerce and digital payment platforms for years, making it easier to buy. For example, WeChat offers brands video ads which link to WeChat-hosted storefronts. This allows consumers to chat and shop at the same time, and complete their purchase without leaving the app. Content also meets commerce in Western markets with shoppable ads on Snap and Amazon, Google, Pinterest shop the look ads, and Facebooks dynamic ads. Online-first brands like Glossier, or Bergamotte in France, as well as influencers and creators, are naturally flocking to formats like Instagrams shoppable posts. Even on TikTok, the ByteDance-owned short- form video platform popular for lip-syncing clips and user- generated challenges, video ads redirect to microsites where people can shop. Beyond mobile, a new frontier of shoppable TV is emerging. South Koreas LG is enhancing TV sets with shoppable Augmented Reality (AR) in home shopping shows. Using an app, TV viewers can use their smartphone cameras, and the TV footage triggers the smartphone to present the item in the home via AR, allowing the user to rotate it, place it, and buy it. While QR codes may not have taken off in many parts of the world, they are commonplace in China on digital Out-Of-Home (OOH) formats: scanning the QR Code with your phone has become a natural behaviour for Chinese brands and consumers. They may make a comeback in other markets too: in the US, NBC Universal is trying out shoppable ads on TV, featuring a QR code which you point your mobile at, to buy. So whats next? Generally, in these formats, a percentage of revenue passes back to the platform. Thanks to the rise of social commerce, direct commerce revenues could boost ad revenues for online media owners, and we will see more media channels experimenting with their versions of shoppable ads. Platforms will also invest further in live commerce in 2020. Weve already seen Amazon introduce Amazon Live in 2019, following in the footsteps of platforms like Alibabas Taobao, which showed a livestream conversion rate of 32%. Tencent has also integrated live streaming into WeChat, potentially opening up eCommerce options. We predict that experimentation with shoppable formats will speed up this year. It remains to be seen whether cryptocurrency innovations to support this, like Facebooks Libra, will launch. What is certain is that many eCommerce and social media platforms, online and mobile video channels, and even TV and OOH, will race to keep pace with this changing eCommerce landscape. FRANÇOIS NICOLON KANTAR THE TECHNOLOGY TRANSFORMING THE MEDIA LANDSCAPE MEDIA TRENDS & PREDICTIONS 2020