I 博鳌亚洲论坛 亚洲经济一体化进程 2019 年度报告 对外经济贸易大学出版社 中国·北京 II 图书在版编目 （ CIP） 数据 博鳌亚洲论坛亚洲经济一体化进程 2019 年度报告 . 北京：对外经济贸易大学出版社， 2019.3 ISBN 978-7-5663-2026-1 . 博 . . 经济一体化 研究报告 亚洲 2019 . F13 中国版本图书馆 CIP 数据核字（ 2019）第 036148 号 2019 年 对外经济贸易大学出版社出版发行 版权所有 翻印必究 博鳌亚洲论坛亚洲经济一体化进程 2019 年度报告 责任编辑：汪 洋 王延新 对外经济贸易大学出版社 北京市朝阳区惠新东街 10 号 邮政编码： 100029 邮购电话： 010 64492338 发行部电话： 010 64492342 网址： uibep E-mail： uibep126 北京博海升彩色印刷有限公司印装 新华书店经销 成品尺寸： 215mm× 278mm 8 印张 205 千字 2019 年 3 月北京第 1 版 2019 年 3 月第 1 次印刷 ISBN 978-7-5663-2026-1 定价： 180.00 元 III 缩略语 ··································································· 序言 ······································································ 第 1 章 美国单边主义和削弱的多边体系困境中亚洲 经济一体化的方向 ········································· 1 1.1 简介 ·········································································································· 1 1.2 背景 ·········································································································· 1 1.3 美国双边战略的发展状况 ··············································································· 4 1.4 多边体系的发展状况 ····················································································· 6 1.5 区域贸易协定的方向 ····················································································· 7 1.6 接下来要做的 ····························································································· 11 第 2 章 过去一年亚洲的贸易与投资发展趋势 ··············· 13 2.1 2017 年的亚洲贸易 ······················································································ 13 2.2 亚洲中间品贸易的发展趋势 呈现积极增长 ··················································· 19 2.3 2017 年亚洲的贸易与投资发展趋势 ································································· 22 第 3 章 亚洲经济体之间的贸易依存度 ························ 31 3.1 亚洲经济/贸易一体化指数 ············································································· 31 3.2 亚洲主要经济体间贸易依存度分析 ·································································· 33 3.3 贸易成员区域内贸易流向矩阵 ········································································ 36 3.4 亚洲中间品贸易流向及依存度 ········································································ 37 3.5 亚洲 14 个经济体制造业出口中增加值的来源 ···················································· 39 第 4 章 亚洲经济体在亚洲工厂中的相互依存 ··············· 43 4.1 亚洲工厂相互依存模式继续保持平稳 ······························································· 43 IV 4.2 零部件产品依存度和竞争优势分布 ·································································· 46 4.3 全球三大工厂全球价值链产品竞争优势分布 ······················································ 49 第 5 章 亚洲经济体直接投资依存度 ··························· 57 5.1 亚洲经济体引进外资依存度指数 ····································································· 57 5.2 亚洲经济体对外投资依存度指数 ····································································· 59 5.3 亚洲直接投资依存度指数 ·············································································· 60 第 6 章 亚洲服务业一体化进程 ································· 63 6.1 亚洲主要经济体服务业增加值出口 ·································································· 63 6.2 亚洲旅游一体化指数 ···················································································· 66 第 7 章 亚洲金融一体化进程 ···································· 71 7.1 亚洲资产组合投资：强劲增长与区域不平衡 ······················································ 71 7.2 亚太金融一体化：法定与事实的视角 ······························································· 74 7.3 经济周期同步性指数 ···················································································· 83 7.4 亚洲股市关联度指数 ···················································································· 85 展望 ····································································· 89 附录 亚洲经济一体化大事记 ···································· 91 参考文献 ····························································· 105 编写说明及致谢 ···················································· 111 V 表1.1 USMCA、CPTPP 和 RCEP 成员 ···························································· 7 表1.2 CPTPP、RCEP 和 ASEAN ··································································· 8 表2.1 全球主要经济体在 2018 年前八个月的货物贸易 ····································· 17 表2.2 2001 2017 年世界、亚洲及亚洲区域内中间品贸易和亚洲主要经济体 中间品进出口增长率 ········································································· 20 表2.3 2015 2017 年亚洲经济体国际直接投资流入 ········································ 22 表2.4 2015 2017 年亚洲经济体国际直接投资流出 ········································ 26 表3.1 部分亚洲经济体的贸易依存度指标 ······················································ 31 表3.2 2017 年部分亚洲经济体间贸易依存度指标 ············································ 33 表3.3 2017 年部分亚洲经济体间贸易流向矩阵 ··············································· 36 表3.4 2017 年亚洲主要经济体间中间品出口矩阵表 ········································· 37 表3.5 2017 年亚洲主要经济体间中间品出口依存度 ········································· 39 表3.6 2010 年亚洲 14 个经济体制造业出口额及其增加值出口 ··························· 40 表3.7 2017 年亚洲 14 个经济体制造业出口额及其增加值出口 ··························· 41 表4.1 2017 年亚洲工厂依存度指数 ······························································ 43 表4.2 2016 年亚洲工厂依存度指数 ······························································ 44 表4.3 2001 2017 年亚洲主要经济体对亚洲工厂依存度情况表 ························· 45 表4.4 2017 年 22 种零部件与亚洲主要经济体、EU27、NAFTA、TPP 的依存度 ···· 46 表4.5 2016 年 22 种零部件与亚洲主要经济体、EU27、NAFTA、TPP 的依存度 ···· 47 表4.6 2017 年亚洲经济体按出口总额排在前 22 位的零部件 ······························ 50 表4.7 2016 年亚洲经济体按出口总额排在前 22 位的零部件 ······························ 51 表4.8 2017 年 EU27 按出口总额排在前 22 位的零部件 ···································· 52 表4.9 2016 年 EU27 按出口总额排在前 22 位的零部件 ···································· 53 表4.10 2017 年 NAFTA 按出口总额排在前 22 位的零部件 ·································· 54 表4.11 2016 年 NAFTA 按出口总额排在前 22 位的零部件 ·································· 55 表5.1 2017 年部分亚洲经济体引进外资依存度指数 ········································· 58 表5.2 2013 2017 年部分亚洲经济体对亚洲内部投资的依存指数 ······················ 58 表5.3 2017 年部分亚洲经济体对外投资依存度指数 ········································· 60 表5.4 2017 年部分亚洲经济体直接投资（流入+流出）依存度指数 ····················· 61 表6.1 2017 年亚洲 14 个经济体服务业增加值出口 ·········································· 63 表6.2 亚洲 14 个经济体总出口中外国（地区）服务业增加值排序 ······················ 65 VI 表6.3 2010 2017 年部分亚洲经济体旅游出口对亚洲市场的依存度 ··················· 67 表6.4 2017 年亚洲主要经济体旅游相互依存度 ··············································· 67 表7.1 2017 年全球资产组合资本流入 ··························································· 72 表7.2 全球资产组合投资资本流出 ······························································· 73 表7.3 计算法定金融开放度指数所用的 14 项指标 ··········································· 75 表7.4 1999 2016 年主要经济体用法定金融开放度测量的金融一体化程度排名 ···· 78 表7.5 2001 2017 年主要经济体以事实金融开放度（IFIGDP）指标计算的金融 开放程度排名 ·················································································· 82 表7.6（a） 2002 2006 年亚太地区经济体的股市相关系数 ····································· 86 表7.6（b） 2007 2011 年亚太地区经济体的股市相关系数 ····································· 87 表7.6（c） 2012 2018 年亚太地区经济体的股市相关系数 ····································· 87 VI 图2.1 2008 2017 年亚洲货物贸易总额及其全球货物贸易中的份额 ··················· 14 图2.2 2008 2017 年亚洲服务贸易总额及其在全球服务贸易中的份额 ················ 14 图2.3 2010 2017 年亚洲货物贸易出口的目的地市场 ····································· 15 图2.4 2004 2017 年中国和美国的货物贸易 ················································· 16 图2.5 2018 年前八个月部分经济体的货物出口额 ············································ 18 图2.6 对三个区域有不利影响的政策干预措施的数量 ······································· 19 图2.7 2000 2017 年亚洲与世界中间品贸易趋势图 ········································ 20 图2.8 2008 2017 年亚洲主要经济体中间品出口趋势图 ·································· 21 图2.9 2017 2018 年上半年 FDI 流入部分经济体的季度趋势 ···························· 25 图2.10 2017 2018 年上半年 FDI 流出部分经济体的季度趋势 ···························· 30 图3.1 亚洲经济体对亚洲整体的贸易依存度 ··················································· 33 图3.2 2000 2017 年亚洲主要经济体间贸易依存度指数 ·································· 34 图6.1 2017 年亚洲各经济体旅游出口对亚洲市场的依存度排序 ·························· 66 图6.2 2014 2017 年各经济体旅游出口对中国的依存度 ·································· 68 图7.1 主要经济体净资本流入/流出 ······························································· 72 图7.2 亚洲对外投资目的地 ········································································· 74 图7.3 亚洲资本流入来源 ············································································ 74 图7.4 1999 2016 年主要经济体法定金融开放度 ··········································· 77 图7.5 2001 2017 年事实金融开放度（IFIGDP 指标） ···································· 79 图7.6 2001 2017 年事实金融开放度（GEQY 指标） ····································· 80 图7.7 2001 2017 年事实金融开放度（EQSH 指标） ····································· 81 图7.8 主要经济体与亚洲总量经济周期的平均相关系数 ···································· 83 图7.9 主要经济体经济周期与亚洲总量经济周期的同步性指数 ··························· 84 图7.10 主要国家与地区与东亚经济周期的平均相关系数 ···································· 84 VIII IX 缩 略 语 5G 第五代移动通信体系 AI 人工智能 APEC 亚洲太平洋经济合作组织 APTP 亚太贸易协定 ASEAN 东南亚国家联盟（东盟） BRI “一带一路”倡议 CPTPP 全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定 EPA 经济伙伴协议 ESCAP 联合国亚洲及太平洋经济社会委员会 EU 欧盟 FDI 海外直接投资 FTA 自由贸易协定 G20 20 国集团 GDP 国内生产年总值 GVC 全球价值链 IP 知识产权 IT 信息技术 NAFTA 北美自由贸易协定 OECD 经济合作与发展组织（经合组织） PNG 巴布亚新几内亚 PTA 优惠贸易协定 QE 量化宽松政策 R&D 研发 RCEP 区域全面经济伙伴关系 ROO 原产地规则 SOE 国有企业 SPS 动植物检验检疫措施 SSSR 供给侧结构性改革 TFP 全要素生产率 X TPP 跨太平洋伙伴关系协定 UNCTAD 联合国贸易与发展会议（联合国贸发会议） US 美国 USMCA 新北美自由贸易协定 WTO 世界贸易组织